Fantasy Baseball Advice

Opening day is nearly upon us and the busiest weekend of the year for fantasy geeks is imminent. I have two events to attend: an 8+ hour auction for an AL-only league on Saturday, and a shorter, simpler draft for a mixed league on Sunday.

I’m always interested in reading general fantasy advice when I come across it — whether I agree with it or not. With that in mind, here are some general principles I’m trying to stick to this year:

1. Go young. If I’m trying to make a decision between two players with similar stat projections, I’m going with the younger one. Younger players tend to be injured less and more likely to have an even better season than you would expect. As an example, if you’re looking for a #1 outfielder in your AL-Only league and you’re trying to decide between Bob Abreu and Alex Rios.. go with Rios.

2. In a mixed league, try to take one closer from the AL and one from the NL. It really sucks when your closers are playing each other.

3. With Johan Santana gone, there’s no sure things in the AL for top-tier pitching. Take a chance on some guys who just came off “down years” — like Jeremy Bonderman.

Dustin McGowan
Guys On My Radar:
Dustin McGowan (SP, Blue Jays) — Coming off what was quietly a very good second half.

Jack Hannahan (3B, Oakland A’s) — Eric Chavez mystery injury sounds like it could keep him out for a while. Hannahan may not smack a ton of homers, but he’s hit for average at every level.

Jeremy Bonderman (SP, Detroit) — Coming off a down year so stock could be low. Only 26.

Jeremy Guthrie (SP, Baltimore) — Future ace in Baltimore

Jeremy Accardo (Closer, Blue Jays) — BJ Ryan is not ready for full-time duty and may not be for some time.

Edwin Encarnacion (3B, Reds) — Ready for a breakout year.

Guys I’m staying away from:
Josh Beckett (SP, Boston) — Let someone else pay a king’s ransom for him. He came in to camp fat and he’s already injured.

Any Hitter on the Giants — **Tear…

Jermain Dye (OF, Chicago) — Getting old, due for an injury, and if the White Sox are in trouble could be traded out of the AL (they have Carlos Quentin waiting).

Nick Markakis (OF, Baltimore) — Everyone is talking about him, and he has no protection in that lineup any more.

Richie Sexson (1B, Seattle) — Do not even consider him. Just cross him off before you start.

Carlos Delgado (1B, NYM) — For whatever reason, people still consider him a legitimate #1 first baseman. He’s not.

Note: I may update this list as the day goes on, as I’ve made the decision to completely forgo work for the rest of the day in favor of fantasy research. God Bless America.