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Eagles Stats: WRs in Playoffs

Feb 17, 2009 Eagles Commentary, Eagles Rumors 1 Comment

This morning I felt the need to take a look at the Eagles wide receivers’ performances in the playoffs.  With so much speculation about the receivers available for trade and whether or not the Eagles need them, it helps to evaluate and compare what we have against the rest of the league through every available means.

Specifically, I’ll be looking at the number of times they were targeted and how often that resulted in a completion, interception, or touchdown.  Then I want to compare it to a few other receivers in the playoffs.

The reason for this is that in January almost all of the defenses are pretty good and, although you can never truly separate the performance of a wide receiver from that of his quarterback, I think there is close to consensus that Donovan had a pretty good run in the playoffs.  He wasn’t the best quarterback (Warner) certainly, but he was still good.  So here are the numbers for Jackson, Curtis, and Avant.

Jackson
MIN: (1/3, 34)  NYG:  (4/7, 81, INT)  ARI:  (6/11, 92, TD)
11/21, 207, TD, INT

Curtis
MIN:  (4/7, 49, INT) NYG: (4/8, 40, INT)  ARI:  (4/8, 122)
12/23, 211, INT

Avant
MIN:  (5/6, 47)  NYG:  (4/5, 43)  ARI:  (2/4, 23)
11/15, 113

The cumulative numbers aren’t surprising.  Avant had the best catch rate in the regular season (for a lot of reasons), and he was an extremely reliable target for McNabb in January.  I’m not sure how wise it would be to wish to see less Avant on the field (by replacing him with free agent/traded wide receiver X).

Now let’s take a look at the numbers for a few other guys.  I only included guys who are #1 or #2 receivers, and who played at least two games.

Fitzgerald
ATL: (6/11, 101, TD)  CAR:  (8/13, 166, TD, INT)  PHI:  (9/11, 152, 3 TD)  PIT:  (7/8, 127, 2 TD)
30/43, 546, 7 TD, INT

Boldin
ATL: (2/5, 72, TD)  PHI:  (4/7, 34)  PIT:  (9/13, 84, INT)
15/25, 190, TD, INT

Holmes
SD:  (2/8, 70, TD)  BAL:  (2/5, 25)  ARI: (10/14, 131, TD, INT)
14/27, 226, 2TD, INT

Ward
SD:  (3/3, 55)  BAL: (4/5, 70)  ARI:  (2/4, 43)
9/12, 168

Chambers
IND:  (4/7, 57, INT)  PIT:  (4/4, 72)
8/11, 129, INT

Mason
MIA:  (4/8, 71)  TEN: (5/9, 78, TD)  PIT: (3/9, 41, INT)
12/26, 190, TD, INT

Getting the obvious out of the way, no one is Larry Fitzgerald.  But I felt inclined to include him because, despite the fact that he’s not of this planet, he is still a receiver in the NFL.

Next, for the most part, you can immediately notice that our #1 and #2 guys do not have the catch rate of most of these other guys.

Catch Rate, In Order:
Ward (75%)
Fitzgerald (70%)
Chambers, Avant (73%)
Boldin (60%)
Holmes, Jackson, Curtis (52%)
Mason (46%)

And Their QB’s Completion Percentage in the playoffs:
Warner:  68%
Roethlisberger:  61%
McNabb:  60%
Rivers:  58%
Flacco:  44%

The only wide receiver on the Eagles who out-performed his quarterback’s completion percentage is Avant, the 3rd receiver.  Elsewhere, you have guys like Hines Ward, Fitzgerald, and Chris Chambers who all put up fantastic catch rates.  Even Desmond Mason’s terrible catch rate is better than Flacco’s completion percentage overall.

I don’t think the small sample size of the playoffs and this set of data is some kind of verdict in favor of doing whatever possible to improve the position.  Their numbers aren’t terrible.  And you could argue that both players should get better (Jackson especially).

But I would say is that these numbers reflect something most of us already agreed on:  in the playoffs, the Eagles put out a starting wide receiver duo that isn’t as good as several other teams’ versions.  How much that hurt the Birds is up for interpretation.

Finally a few random observations from the data gathering:

As bad as you might think the Carolina gameplan was against Fitzgerald, the Eagles was no better.  Fitzgerald caught the first six balls thrown his way and his catch rate was better against the Eagles than the Panthers.

Baskett, Brown, and Lewis had no catches against the Giants.

Hines Ward doesn’t catch many balls any more, but when it comes his way it’s usually in a big spot and he almost always makes the catch.

Events Conspiring Against Eli, Giants?

Jan 29, 2009 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

The Giants have an interesting off-season ahead.  They’ve got two UFA running backs (Jacobs, Ward).  They will undoubtedly re-sign one of them (Jacobs), but they will likely lose some valuable depth a pretty darn good runner.

Long time Giant Amani Toomer is a free agent.  Plaxico Burress has a long-term deal, but the Manhattan criminal court may decide his NFL career will best be continued after a stay in the penitentiary.  So re-sign Toomer, right?  Well, there appears to be at least a little problem.  He sounds more than a little bit peeved at the organization.

My agent and them have been talking a little bit, but I just think the way the season ended and how they started going away from me at the end of the year, I think it ultimately hurt the team and I think contributed greatly to our situation right now, being out of it.

I just think the last couple of games I wasn’t a big part of the offense and we lost … a big percentage of the games (four of the last five). I feel like you can’t tell me (that) didn’t play a big role in it. I think it did.

Reduced role for veteran with expiring contract leading to unhappy player.  Sound familiar?

They’ve also have to figure out whether to keep the services of our favorite fat-ass middle linebacker, who has become enough of a liability that many fans are calling for his ouster.

Now, getting back to the free agents.  The Giants do have plenty of cap room.  And with Toomer, his ability has declined enough with age that just dropping him from the team might not hurt that much.  But him and Plaxico?  That would be a disaster.

Enter Anquan Boldin.  The NY media is infatuated with the guy, and even though he’s still under contract they want him in a bad way.  But this may be another situation that turns sour for the team.  Just this week Larry Fitzgerald made public comments that he would be willing to restructure his deal to help the team retain Boldin.  That certainly doesn’t guarantee a deal gets done, but with Boldin under contract through 2010 he would probably accept a shiny new deal from the Cardinals rather than causing too much trouble.

A lot of questions in NY this off-season.  Next year could be the first time in his career that Eli has questionable talent running routes for him.  Looking forward to that.

Liar Liar

Jan 28, 2009 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

Well, maybe none of us really believed him anymore anyway.  But when Donovan routinely says he doesn’t pay attention to criticism of him, you can officially consider that complete bullshit.

I caught 5ive on SportsCenter tonight (he’s making a habit of being on the show for Super Bowl week), where he spent some time talking about the Cardinals and specifically Larry Fitzgerald.  He managed to drop this piece of dynamite:

“With Fitzgerald out there, as a quarterback, all of a sudden you are very accurate.”

Zing!

Nope, he doesn’t pay attention to any of the criticism, especially any of that stuff about him not being consistently accurate.

Nope, not at all.

Random Thoughts on the NFCCG Loss

Jan 19, 2009 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

No team has ever given up more than 28 points and won the NFC Championship.

The Eagles got out-schemed in a big way.  The Cardinals identified the weaknesses in this defense and attacked with gusto, they set up late-game plays with what they did early.  Hard to be angry about it, you can’t give Jim Johnson credit all year long then want to hang him now.

What was Greg Lewis’ DVOA for today’s game, like -100?  The drop on the deep ball, then the stupid quick-hit to him in the slot that lost two yards in the red zone(what, is he going to break his first NFL tackle now?).  Just kill me.

It seems the emerging talking point on the Curtis PI no-call is either “they were letting them play, Curtis has to catch that” or “you can’t let the game come down to a bang bang play like that”.  Whatever.

Look, if that was Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss getting tackled these blathering idiots on TV and radio wouldn’t be saying the same thing.  They would be killing the zebras.  Then again, if it was Fitz or Moss the zebras would have thrown the flag.

And to say Curtis should have caught that pisses me off even more.  I don’t care if it hit his hands, that’s an impossible adjustment — getting tackled just before the ball gets to you.

Yes, the Eagles got killed by another PI no-call in the red zone in the first half (Avant).  Ugh.

Troy Aikman does go out of his way to kill McNabb.  It’s undeniable and infuriating.  To the Eagles fans who are McNabb haters - does it feel good to share something with Troy Aikman?

Larry Fitzgerald is Coming to Town

Nov 26, 2008 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

He was the object of our affection for much of the last off-season.  And for good reason.

At this point I wouldn’t want any receiver in the NFL before Larry Fitzgerald.  I watch virtually every Cardinals game — with two TV’s and few 4 o’clock options.  And the guy is a phenom.  He’s got everything you want from a wideout — size, speed, strength, precision, and none of the premadonna attitude.

He clears out the field for Anquan Boldin, who is able to get the ball in space and bruise people.  Fitzgerald makes impossible catches in traffic.  You can’t take him out of a game.

In short, he’s everything the Eagles need in a playmaker.

On Thursday night, try and watch him without getting angry.  You’ll probably be around your family, and no one needs an angry Eagles nut on Thanksgiving night.  Larry isn’t going anywhere anymore.  And since you fell in love with the guy last spring, and his team is going to be playing January, hey… you might as well have someone to root for.

A Problem of Timing

Apr 23, 2008 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

As we inch closer to the draft one thing has become apparent regarding the Eagles’ mindset for a Lito trade — they would rather not receive draft picks.

The Eagles have, according to various reports, offered Lito (in combination with their own picks) for Larry Fitzgerald, Jared Allen, Roy Williams, and Chad Johnson. They have also been rumored to be looking at moving up in the first round, and are offering Lito and their own picks to do so. There could be others.

Presumably, there are offers on the table for Lito — which are likely to include draft picks heading the Eagles’ way. Unfortunately, it’s not the most attractive option for a team with an abundance of them already.

The Eagles already have a talented roster and 11 draft picks. They are likely considering the potential of a nasty numbers game in July if all goes well in the draft. Another two or three picks for Lito will only complicate things further. Any other year and the Eagles would likely be very happy to accept a pick or three and move on — this is awkward timing.

If they are unable to attain a player for Lito it is unknown if they would then consider trying to keep him — despite the obvious complications.  Just another thing keep in mind on what we’ll surely be an interesting Saturday.

Going For Broke?

Apr 21, 2008 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

The Eagles are involved in seemingly every trade rumor floating out there. As of right now, the list includes Chad Johnson, Roy Williams, and Dewayne Robertson. It is known that the team has already made a run at Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald. There may even be others that the team has managed to keep a secret.

On top of that, the organization has made some big moves — signing arguably the biggest free agent on the market in Asante Samuel and adding another speed rusher to the defensive line in Chris Clemons.

Which brings us to an interesting question — are the Eagles making one last run at a Super Bowl for Donovan McNabb? Is this the Alamo? Is it over after this and is the team in full rebuilding mode?

Before I answer that, let me digress.

There is little in the world of a sports fan that is worse than cheering for a bad team under bad management. There always has to be some light at the end of the tunnel, a plan for the future — something to make the present pain seem worthwhile.

In the Reid era Eagles fans have never had to worry about this. While the fans in the rest of the division have all experienced periods of hopelessness (remember Quincy Carter?), Eagles fans have gone into every season rightfully feeling like contenders.

That’s not to say these guys are infallible. Anyone who gives Darren Howard a $30 million contract is far from perfect. But from a player acquisition standpoint — this team has always had talent and always been in the playoff mix.

Which brings me back to the original question — what happens after this year? All signs point to the Eagles “going for broke” this season. Is this really the case?

A good look at the roster gives you the answer — happily, a clear “no.”

A team enters rebuilding mode when the talent on its roster can’t compete for the playoffs. But it also recognizes the need to shed overpaid veterans and play younger players who, while presently worse than the veterans, have the potential to be a part of the team long enough to contribute to its eventual winning ways.

This situation generally results from years of bad drafting and bad free agent moves. Throw in some bad salary cap management, an injury or three, and a team can quickly find itself in a hole.

The Eagles have continued to avoid these problems. Even when they’ve had a couple of not-so-good drafts (2003/2004), they were bookended by excellent ones (2002/2005/2006 were all fantastic).

This team has also always known the right time to say goodbye to a veteran player and replace him with someone younger. Thanks to those kind of decisions, the team continues to have a good mix of veterans and young players. The players signed this free agent period, Samuel and Clemons, are 27 and 26, respectively.

What’s the final judgement here? Well, this management group (Reid, Heckert, Banner) is never going to be a complete success until they win a Super Bowl. But Philadelphia has been fortunate to have them around. It started with the courage to make the McNabb selection on draft day, and this team has been contenders ever since.

In terms of the present, the management realizes it has the talent on the roster to make a run at the Super Bowl. It knows that only one or two more pieces can turn them from contender to “powerhouse” and isn’t afraid to make the moves when the moves are there to be made. It’s unfortunate that the biggest prize — a Fitzgerald or Moss — has still eluded them (largely because of factors out of their control).

I’m not Dave Spadaro and I didn’t write this post with the purpose of heaping praise on these guys.  But the reality is that there are fans around the league whose fates are in the hands of much less capable men. And for all of our complaining, I’m pretty damn happy I’m not one of them.

Yeah, It’s Over

Mar 11, 2008 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

It was fun while it lasted, though.

[ESPN] Larry Fitzgerald Agrees to New Deal with Cardinals.

This is Going to be Tough

Mar 9, 2008 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

The Cardinals insist Larry Fitzgerald isn’t going anywhere. Now that the organization doesn’t have any marquee free agents to go after, it seems more likely that they will retain him one way or another.

The Bengals tell anyone who will listen that they won’t give in to Chad Johnson and trade him. The fact that they will take a monster $8 million cap hit if they do indicates they aren’t lying.

The other big-name guy the Eagles are likely to be chasing, Roy Williams, is difficult for different reasons:

The Lions might be listening to trade offers. They would be foolish not to listen. But there is a big difference between listening to offers and shopping someone.

Unless the Lions were to get something remarkable in return — Philadelphia cornerback Lito Sheppard and a mid- to low-round draft pick isn’t enough, in my book — it wouldn’t make sense to trade Williams.

I know why the rumors are out there. Williams is in the last year of his contract. He probably wants a big raise. Some say he would rather play elsewhere. He cast doubt on his future himself last season.

That might be the biggest problem with attempting a trade to Detroit. Matt Millen is a hated man in that city, and trading away Roy Williams for anything less than another superstar might just induce riots outside of Ford Field.

If the Eagles are truly interested in Williams, they could undoubtedly put together a package that could help the Lions (Sheppard by himself would be a tremendous help to their terrible secondary). But will Millen have the cahones to trade away a fan favorite? I doubt it.

Bad Contracts Lead to Bad Situations

Mar 7, 2008 Eagles Rumors Leave a comment

I’ve written extensively about the situation the Cardinals have gotten themselves in with Larry Fitzgerald. No need to rehash that.

Rod Graves, Go Sit in the Corner

What I’m going to point out today is the notion that somehow the Cardinals are the victim in this disaster is completely ludicrous. From Kent Somers today:

But they’ve known for years that they could face this situation. It’s the price teams pay for picking high in the draft. Fitzgerald was the third overall pick in 2004, and he signed a deal laden with incentives that would pay him handsomely if he became an elite player.

This is not the price teams pay for picking high in the draft. It is the price teams pay for negotiating a short-sighted, stupid contract. With his rookie deal, the Cardinals essentially said “if you become a star, we’re going to be broke and you’re going to have us by the balls.”

And if they saw this situation coming last year (there were plenty who did), why didn’t they get Fitzgerald to the negotiating table and hammer out a deal then?

I genuinely enjoy Somers’ reporting and viewpoint from Arizona, but he’s wrong here. This is their own fault, and it’s not common.

Even when the Cardinals do something right (draft a future superstar), they screw it up.