Gambling Notes

I made a small wager on SMU +18.5 last night, so a little momentum heading into the weekend which is always nice.  A bit of a rush today with an early flight tomorrow to Honolulu.  It’s sun and cocktails for the next 10 days.

Today’s work:
Boise St – 17 (got it on Thursday, it’s -18 or higher now).
South Carolina +3 (love them over Auburn, who I see as one dimensional)
Arkansas +7.5 (this game should be tight the whole way with the Razorbacks hosting.  As soon as it went over a touchdown it was a must take).
Florida Atlanta -10 (North Texas was already awful before they were devastated by losing 10 starters to injury)
Oklahoma -14 (the Bearcats, like the rest of the Big East, are awful).

Yearly Record:  9-8
Hoping to be able to update here before tomorrow’s games start, but I’ll list myself as doubtful.

Nice Weekend

I really had an interesting, mixed bag of a weekend in Detroit.  On the one hand, Ford Field is really nice.  The Lions had an outstanding little block party going on outside before the game and it was awesome seeing the Birds live for the first time since 2008.

On the other hand, Detroit is such an epic mess of a city that it’s really difficult to keep yourself upbeat as you move around.  Giant, empty buildings define downtown.  On the way back to our hotel after the game I walked right by a guy as he lit his crackpipe.  Yeah.

But the Eagles won on the road.  Life is worth living and full of joy!

Gambling.  Because of travel I didn’t have a chance to update here.  Mixed results, but ended up for the weekend.

College.  Penn State (-21), win.  Wisconsin (-13), loss.
NFL.  Washington (+3.5), win.  Minnesota (-6), loss.  Cle/KC (under 38.5), win.  Cinci (+3), win.

Weekend:  4-2
Overall:  7-8

Update:  Taking OVER 44 tonight.

The Impending Mike Vick Injury

Kevin KolbSo it really looks like Kevin Kolb is out this weekend.  Which means there’s a whole bunch of “Team Vick”* folks who are pretty happy.

But there’s little discussion about what seems to be a pretty obvious lack of judgment on the part of Big Red and his team… what happens if, during one of his many violent collisions with people much larger than him, Michael Vick gets injured?

Right now what happens is “Mike Kafka”.  And maybe that’s a risk Andy Reid is willing to take with the understanding that the ringing in Kevin Kolb’s ears is going to clear up real soon.

But what if it doesn’t?  Are we sure, given that Kolb is three days removed and still failing concussion tests, that he’s going to be back even in Week 3?

Things could get very, very ugly very, very quickly.

*Never too early to break this meme out

[Delaware Online] Kolb and Bradley Fail Concussion Tests

Some Gambling Success, Finally

Completely avoided the NFL on Sunday.  And it wasn’t because I didn’t look hard for a mark.  I stared at the numbers for at least a half an hour before I realized if nothing stood out to me it was a damn good idea to just close things up for the weekend.

That decision left me with a prosperous weekend.  I took Ohio State -8.5 and Washington -13 on Saturday.  Which gets me to 2-5 overall on the year and still a lot of ground to make up.

Trying to keep it rolling tonight, taking KC +5.5 (@bodog).  Hate the Chargers this season, love a home dog getting a fairly decent number.  The public is hitting the Chargers hard as well, and the line is much lower at other places (as low as 4.5).  Go Chiefs.

The Weekend, SportsBook Betting Trends

Last night felt like an unsatisfying nibble of the big meal to come this weekend.  Some fun college football matchups tomorrow, followed by Man Christmas on Sunday.

One note about last night’s game.  According to the folks who operate this site, sports books in Vegas were getting over 75% of their action on Saints -5/-5.5/-6.  And over 80% on the over.  Lots of losers last night (this guy included on the over).  It looks like they plan on keeping their service free for a time.

Pretty excited (foolishly, for certain) for Syracuse’s trip to Washington.  Gametime is 7.  This is the sort of game where you might be able to find a sign the team is turning a corner, even in defeat.  Cuse are 14 point dogs, and that number is likely to go up.

And to give you some perspective on just how unlikely a victory is for this weekend… since 1964 Syracuse is 1-11-2 when they make road trips to the Pacific Time Zone (and that includes some teams that are obviously much better than this one).  Washington is 23-2 at home against east coast teams in that same time frame.

So let’s hope for more improvement, and delight if a miracle should happen.

In related football news, it looks like the Big East will be adding Villanova to its football group very soon.  Pretty exciting for Philadelphia are college football fans.

NFL Betting… Can’t Be Any Worse

The line has been moving slightly on this game.  It started at either Saints -4.5 or Saints -5, and it’s now at -6 on Bodog.

There are competing thoughts as to who’s got the upper hand on this one.  Many smart observers remember how much the Vikings dominated the NFC Championship last season.  That their repeated fumbles are what cost them the victory, and that the teams are returning in much the same form.

On the other hand, the Vikings are extremely thin in the secondary — which is obviously bad news against Drew Brees.  They’re looking at an inexperienced safety as their nickel corner.  Not a good situation when you’re playing a Saints’ offense that knows how to exploit weaknesses.

So I’m avoiding that line and going for the over/under.  Saints games made it to 49 in ten of their sixteen regular season contests in 2009.

I think we see more big plays all over the field tonight and both teams light up the scoreboard , so I’m taking OVER 49.

Season Record (only NCAA so far):  0-4  (yikes).

Fantasy Sports Rules

If you run a league, it better be a damn emergency for you to schedule the draft/auction on opening night.

I’ve been in this football league for seven years.  It’s a keeper league with relatively high stakes (for me, anyway).  Literally every league member has complained about our draft being tomorrow night, but the commissioner has refused to move it.

Fantastic way to take the air out of the season opening joy balloon.

College Football Betting – Week One

Starting a new regular feature this week — telling the story of my financial ruin in public.

Actually the goal this year is to replicate last season’s success.  In limited betting (two or three games per weekend) I actually had a successful gambling season for the first time in my life.  The only thing I enjoy doing more than placing the bets is talking about them, so let’s get this thing started.

Oklahoma (-33.5) over Utah State
In 2009, OU had two home games scheduled for September that they won by a combined score of 109-0.  The results have been similar in 2007 and 2008.  Utah State is terrible and has been for some time and will be completely overwhelmed.  Take the Sooners.

Cincinatti at Fresno State OVER 58
Neither of these defenses can handle a decent offense, and both of them have enough firepower to light up a scoreboard.  Both of these teams will score at least 30.

Virginia Tech vs Boise State UNDER 50
The line here keeps going up, and you should keep letting it go up and take the under.  Virginia Tech failed pretty miserably (the yards per play splits tell the story) against good defenses last season and Boise State’s defense is outstanding.  BSU has a good offense, but they’re not going to light up VT.  This game is staying under.

Clemson -27.5 vs North Texas
This one is something I picked up on based on the moving line and reading what the sharps were playing.  North Texas is awful, Clemson should roll.